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Electrolytic aluminum resumes production, market demand determines aluminum price

2019-03-01 11:13:40
Alcoa said it will not engage in binding arbitration negotiations with the United Steelworkers union to end the 14th month of Quebec's annual production of 450,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum smelters.

The national average price of alumina was 2812 yuan / ton, down 2 yuan / ton compared with last week. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, most of the companies just started to work, and the downstream aluminum plants did not have a large purchase intention. In the Spring Festival, some alumina producers accumulated some inventory, and the willingness to ship was more obvious; The current alumina price is already below the cost line of some factories, which has a certain supporting effect on alumina prices.

According to data from the International Aluminum Association (IAI), global primary aluminum production in January decreased by 23,000 tons from the previous month to 2.185 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons from the same period of the previous year. China's primary aluminum production in January is expected to be 2.969 million tons, down from the 3.14 million tons revised in December. Aladdin expects China's electrolytic aluminum output in January to be 3.07 million tons, higher than IAI data.

The main logic: For aluminum in the short-term, the inventory will continue to accumulate after the holiday, and the demand still needs time to recover. It is expected that the main contract aluminum price will fluctuate and run at a running range of 13,300 yuan/ton-14,000 yuan/ton.

Operation suggestion: wait and see

Be wary of risk points: Expect unexpected overseas aluminum market.

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